The most recent infrastructure improvements in Information Technology and Communication along with the technological advances of forecasting methods and the increasing demand of timeliness statistical information have created the emergence of flashing indicators or real time indicators. Flashing indicators refers to short-term estimation, namely nowcasting, of relevant information for policymakers, like GDP. Flashing indicators are a compromise between timeliness, higher frequency and accuracy. They allow a snapshot of the ongoing economic situation. The main objective of this workshop is to present papers from well-known international specialists and practitioners on the following three fundamental issues:

i)              forecasting methods in real time indicators,

ii)             factors that affect the accuracy of such estimators and relevant criteria in the choice of the exogenous variables

             iii)            examples of ongoing projects on flashing indicators, techniques developed by national statistics’ office to convert administrative data in statistical ones and techniques of data disaggregation and reconciliation

Speakers:

Mike Clements (University of Warwick, United Kingdom) presents the "Vector autoregressive models of data vintages for US output growth and inflation "  (co-author:Ana Beatriz Galvão) 

Antoni Espasa (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain) presents  "Forecasting disaggregates and aggregate with common features"  (co-author: Iván Mayo)

Siem Jan Koopman (Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde, The Netherlands) presents the"Dynamic factor models and macroeconomic forecasting: a likelihood-based analysis"

Kajal Lahiri (University of Albany, USA) presents "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys " (co-author George Monokroussos)

Gian-Luigi Mazzi (Eurostat) presents "A system of rapid estimates to improve real time monitoring of the economic situation: the case of euro area"

Benoît Quenneville  (Statistics Canada, CA) presents " Testing Time Series Data Compatibility  for Benchmarking” (co-author: Christian Gagné)

Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School, UK) presents the "G-20 in real time"

Herman Stekler (George Washington Universtity, USA) presents the "Data Revisions and Forecasting Turning Points" (co-author: Tara M. Sinclair)

Nicolas Stoffels, (Swiss National Bank, CH) presents "An Automated Short-Term Economic Forecasts Procedure at the Swiss National Bank (SNB)"

Chair, Round table: Andrew Harvey (Cambridge University, UK)

Discussants:

Marcos Bujosa (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, España)

Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France, France)

Kornel Mahlstein (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO, Switzerland)

Urs Müller (BAK Basel Economics AG, Switzerland)

Gabriel Perez Quiroz (Banco de España)

Pilar Poncel (Universidad Autonoma de Mardid, España)

Tommaso Proietti (Università "Tor Vergata", Roma, Italia)

Tara M. Sinclair (The George Washington University, USA)

Marc Wildi (Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Switzerland)